Smart Choices (1) | Focus and Defining Problem

I've been reading a book, Smart Choices. Here I just want to jot down a quick note of some valuable ideas of what I have underlined in the book. I have completed a couple of chapters, and find it very relevant to what I had been searching out for, and it is useful and applicable. 

 

Quotes from the book:

• "A decision is a means to an end." 
• "Ask yourself what you most want to accomplish and which of your interests, values, concerns, fears, and aspirations are most relevant to achieving your goal. Thinking through your objectives will give directions to your decision making" 
• "... a good decision doesn't necessarily guarantee a good result, just as a bad decision doesn't necessarily guarantee a bad result. The careless can hit it lucky, the careful can be shot down. But a good decision does increase the odds of success and at the same time satisfies our very human desire to control the forces that affect our lives."
• "Always focus your thinking on  where it matters most."
• "A simple act of setting out your problem, objectives, alternatives, consequences, and tradeoffs, as well as any uncertainties, risks, or linked decision factors, will fully clarify the decision, pointing the way to the smart choice. 
• If not, you should reconfigure your problem in various ways. Display it graphically, as a table, diagram, or chart..... Restate the problem in several forms, using different words, phrasings, and emphasis."
• "The essence of our approach is ....  break your decision into key elements; identify those most relevant to your decision; apply some hard systematic thinking; and make decision." 
• "One thing the method won't do is make hard decisions easy. ... No one can make that complexity disappear. But you can manage complexity sensibly."
• "To resolve a complex decision situation, you break it into the 8 elements and think systematically about each one, focusing on those that are key to your particular situation. Then, you reassemble your thoughts and analysis into the smart choice."
• "To make sure you get the problem right, you need to get out of the box and think creatively."
• "... if you started out from the wrong place - with wrong problem - you won't have made the smart choice."
• "The way you state the problem frames your decision."
• "But problems aren't always bad. In fact, by stating your problem creatively, you can often transform it into an opportunity"
• "Ask yourself: What can I gain from this situation? What are the opportunities here?"
• "Every problem has a trigger... Triggers can bias your thinking. They can trap you into viewing the problem only in the way they first occurred to you."
• "Problem definition include constraints that narrow the range of alternatives you consider." 
• "Sometimes, such constraints are useful - they focus your choice and prevent you from wasting time wrestling with irrelevant options. Sometimes though they put blinders on you, preventing you from seeing the best options."

My Review:

Just in the first chapters, you can see the writers of the book emphasised two things. First, focus only on what really matters to your goal. Second, define your problem in line with your final goal that can frame your decision in the right direction. Say, ask yourself why the 'problem' a problem? and what problem must I decide? Are you defining the problem as it necessarily is a problem? Or can you reframe the problem as an opportunity? 

If a 'problem' is with a trivial consequence like going to which restaurant tonight won't necessarily bring a huge financial loss to me after all, given that having a nice and inexpensive meal is my goal, then I wouldn't waste my time and energy to struggle with that. Random choice may bring me a surprise or a disappointment, with the mind of saving time and no financial impact behind, I wouldn't mind gambling it. For me, a restaurant choice is not a problem, spend a lot of time in picking one seems to be foolish as it doesn't worth the time proportionately. However if the quality of food, quality of service, the environment and atmosphere, the distance of the restaurant, the cost of the dinner, crime rate around the area of the restaurant etc has financial implication, or may have impact on your business development with a picky business partner, relationship with your spouse, or even your personal safety etc, you definitely should spend more time to look for a better restaurant to fit a range of criteria. This explains why we have to learn, first identify what worth our time and effort, and place the right amount of focus on the right place in the right direction; and second, how to decide wisely along the direction. 

If the problem is really defined as a problem, spend more time to walk through the eight elements/steps as the writers profess (which I will list out later). By simply going through the process, it helps one to understand better his/her own current problem and make a relatively balanced decision to fit what it needs to reach the final goal. 

Actually, the authors also pointed out the third point - widen our horizon by being creative in listing more alternatives instead of just remain focus in the usual old way which may be barred from our bias - which may land us to the alternative that we had never thought about but is the most suitable and effective one.

The crucial part of making the success of making a right decision is that you should state a decision problem correctly at the outset. Don't jump to the conclusion of defining a problem prematurely without pondering other options/alternatives, and try to bail yourself out of the process as soon as your possibly can. Rather, you should think more broadly for alternatives through comparisons and other considerations of time, importance, saliency, financial implications, and emotional energy required/involved down the line. 

As the writers put an example of a young family reframed their pre-defined problem of "how should they refurbish their house?" to "whether they should sell the house and buy another bigger house?", you can see how difference of a problem can be in the same situation. From that, the writers stretched the considerations to their future family planning, money, jobs, relationship, aged relatives, quality of life etc, instead of just thinking about getting more space for accommodating the need for another child to come. They tried to make the point that you should think unrestrictedly for alternatives and weigh their implied consequences, both pros and cons, well before defining a problem. And along the way, you should keep reviewing the problem you set early on as circumstances may change rapidly and new information may unexpectedly come up against your way. Defining a problem upfront is never an easy task and it takes time, but the outcome of a right decision pays it all off. 

To be Continued:

I will review the book in a more comprehensive fashion in the posts to come - the way I used to. Perhaps a few quote posts from the book may follow, but the end of the day, I would systemise the whole idea of making "right and good" decision as a protocol for future use/reference.

 

More Topics:

Smart Choices (2) | Eight Elements in PrOACT Approach

Smart Choices (3) | Comparing with Consequence Table

Trade-offs in Decision Making

Uncertainty and Assigning Chance

Decision Tree

Assessing Risk Tolerance for Decision Making

Subjective Probability Estimation

 

Reference

John S. Hammond, Ralph L. Keeney, Howard Raiffa, Smart Choices - A Practical Guide to Making Better Life Decisions, Broadway Books, 1999.

==================================

Disclaimer

No part of the post may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without written permission from the blog creator, Snow Hill 高山雪.

This is a personal blog, the blog creator does not warrant, guarantee, or assume responsibility for the accuracy or reliability of any information posted. Under no circumstances shall the blog creator has any liability to you for any loss or damage of any kind incurred as a result of the use of, or reliance on, the information of the site or blog posts. The use of the site and your reliance on any information on the site is solely at your own risk.  

 © Copyright 2021-2022 高山雪 Snow Hill. All rights reserved.